BSNLMarketShare

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BSNL’s market share may dip to 7.3 % by 2013, predicts research
State run PSU, BSNL which is lagging private operators for the last few years may witness a further erosion of market share even as private operators improve respective performance in terms of adding subscriber base.

A study by Research and Markets estimates that BSNL may end up with market share of 7.3 % & by 2013 as compared to market share of 13.3 % in 2008.

Bharti Airtel is predicted to continue leading the pack with its subscriber base increasing from 85.7 million in 2008 to 239.9 million by 2013. Following Airtel will be RCom with subscriber base of 158.8 million while Vodafone Essar will have 151.6 million subscribers. The subscriber base for wireless services in the country may scale past 876.6 million by 2013.

In terms of market share, Airtel will see increase from 24.7% to 27.4 % by 2013 while for RCom and Idea Cellular, the market shares will increase to reach 18.1 % and 13.2 % respectively.

Sadly the ARPU will continue declining at a rate of 19.7%. ARPU may decline from Rs 302 in 2008 to Rs 240 by 2013. RCom in particular will have the lowest ARPU of Rs 201 from 277 in 2008. Minutes of usage per subscriber will also decline at the rate of 8.6%.

The research predicts the EBITDA of Bharti Airtel to improve over the five year period from 2008-2013 from 31.9% to 34.2 %. RCom will have the best EBITDA says the research at 38.2% by 2013.

The main drawback about this research finding is that it took into consideration trends till Q1 2009. Indian industry has witnessed dynamic change in market environment since then with all operators offering one paise per second billing and new entrants notching record subscriber additions. Hence there is a very high likelihood that in reality the findings may vary significantly by the end of 2013.


It seems this research is biased towards some private telcos. It is true that BSNL/MTNL subscriber bases are decreasing comparatively but at the same time this is also true that as per TRAI report, the subs. base shown by these private telcos are exhagareted. Some political & vestet interests were mainly responsible for delay in BSNL mobile mega tender resulting equipment shortage. This problem is sorted out now & mobile subs base are increasing. Moreover the broadband & other data services contributes a significant amount towards overall market share & BSNL/MTNL both are leading strongly in this segment. It is also to be seen, with the fierce price war among competitors how many private telcos are able withstand the pressure in future.

Posted By :- madan


Comments

madan--------11/5/2009
It seems this research is biased towards some private telcos. It is true that BSNL/MTNL subscriber bases are decreasing comparatively but at the same time this is also true that as per TRAI report, the subs. base shown by these private telcos are exhagareted. Some political & vestet interests were mainly responsible for delay in BSNL mobile mega tender resulting equipment shortage. This problem is sorted out now & mobile subs base are increasing. Moreover the broadband & other data services contributes a significant amount towards overall market share & BSNL/MTNL both are leading strongly in this segment. It is also to be seen, with the fierce price war among competitors how many private telcos are able withstand the pressure in future.



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